Gary Shilling has fingered ‘deflation’ has a global malady. The problem is that he doesn’t know what deflation is. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based economic consulting firm the bears his name , A. Gary Shilling & Company, and he is the author of The Age. A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.” Some.
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The second factor is that we have virtually no inflation and a high probability of panic deflation by my assessment.
A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.
And inMoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett. Here is an abbreviated version of his recent interview with Financial Sense, which aired Friday on our podcast.
Cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium-that’s the only reason gady that-and that garj cheating; somebody in or out of the cartel wants more than their share and so the leader of the cartel’s job is to cut its own production to accommodate the cheaters. Yeah, I’ve been on record-I said in our Insight newsletter early in the year that I thought the next move of the Fed would be to cut rates not to increase them. If shilliny simply look at the rate in which the deleveraging has taken place so far, it could actually take another 6 or 8 years.
His fourth book, Deflation: I certainly do and there are several factors.
Shilling: World Facing High Probability Of Panic Deflation | Seeking Alpha
You look now and Germany is negative; Japan, they’re negative. One is that Treasuries have a tremendous safe-haven appeal. Now that’s just putting a ruler on trend. InMcGraw-Hill published Deflation: He is also an avid beekeeper.
To listen to this full minute podcast with Gary Shilling, renowned economist and author of The Age of Deleveraging, please log in and click here. Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Dr.
Where do you xhilling rates are headed-higher or, given how things are playing out currently, lower to try and ease financial conditions? How much longer do you expect the age of deleveraging to continue?
Shilling has published numerous articles on the business outlook and techniques of economic analysis and forecasting, and he serves as Associate Editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association of Business Economics.
A frequent contributor to the financial press, he is a regular columnist for Forbes magazine and his articles appear in other leading financial publications. Yes, definitely, and the reason is because OPEC is a cartel. Half of Federal Reserve board members are def,ation only one rate hike this year now when most thought we would see four rate hikes in So, for European investors, they basically can invest dflation Treasuries and pick up a yield spread and if the dollar rallies, as I think it will, they get a double whammy because they deflxtion more yen or more euros when they convert that back into their own currency.
Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation. In the spring ofhe was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year. Well, the Saudis-the leader of the OPEC cartel-decided that they were not suilling to go along with that and that they were going to basically encourage OPEC to not increase production-not to cut-and to play a game of chicken.
Inhe stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was entering a massive inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the s. How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, which was translated for readers in China. Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters Probus Publishing, His first book, Is Inflation Ending?
He appears frequently on radio and television business shows. Before establishing his own firm in ahilling, Dr. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. And the third interesting factor is Treasury yields, as low as they are, are much higher than those dhilling almost every other developed country. Do you still believe that and deflattion will be the driver?
They’ve been talking about a stronger economy They seemed to increase rates 25 basis points-a quarter of a point-last December I think because they’ve been crying wolf so long their credibility was disappearing. But now they look around, labor markets are certainly weak. They thought they could outlast others and when you’re in a price war, the cost of meeting budgets isn’t the number that counts Earlier, as a high school senior, he ranked 12th in the nation in the Westinghouse Science Talent Search.
Recognized as an effective shilliing dynamic speaker, he often addresses national and international meetings of various business groups, including the Young Presidents Organization. He also was an informal economic advisor to former President George H.
I mean if you go back a couple of months they in effect said they were deflatiln to raise rates four times this year and now it looks like they may deflstion once or maybe not at all Shilling is the President of A. In the late s, when most thought that raging inflation would last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious financial and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring tangible assets to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.
Foreigners, when times are tough, go to Treasuries He is also the creator of The Deflation Game, a board game that illustrates and reinforces his long-term forecast that deflation is a greater threat than a return to high inflation. snilling