In December , one of the most eminent economists of the time, Alvin E. Hansen, delivered the Presidential Address, titled “Economic. Summers’ theory of “secular stagnation” (a term first used by the economist Alvin Hansen back in ) holds that, in the United States, the. Recently, Hansen’s secular stagnation hypothesis has gained renewed stagnation in the US in much the same way as suggested by Alvin Hansen in

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But a full-fledged recovery calls for something more than the mere expenditure of depreciation allowances.

And despite your explanations, it still seems strange, almost weird, that he doesn’t mention Keynes in the paper given his views on the inadequacy of investment and the impotency of interest rates in moving investment are distinctly Keynesian notions. This page was last edited on 29 Decemberat At a macro level, Field points out that essentially the same number of people were employed in as inusing what seems to be the same value of capital stock, and yet real output was one-third or more higher in than in implying substantial productivity growth even with the period of the Great Depression taken into account.

If you haven’t read the speech, I recommend that you do–it’s an interesting and easy read. In he received an invitation to occupy the new Lucius N. In his book Business Cycles and National Incomehe defines the cycle as a fluctuation in: Posted by David Andolfatto at 1: Carver John R.

Schultze Charles P. Walker Charles F. He advocated against using unemployment to control inflation. Copeland George W.

Black Edwin E. As well, there is the perennial question of how to identify theoretical objects like “full employment” or “potential GDP” in the data. Daniel March 8, at 3: In this post, I’ll sketch out what Hansen actually said, give a sense of why the “secular stagnation” hypothesis was widely disregarded in recent decades, and suggest how I see the modern lessons. I sometimes hear people suggest that Hansen’s hypothesis fell out of favor because it was proved wrong.


He died in Alexandria, Virginia on June 6 of at the age of 87 years. Later economists began to notice that growth and economic stability might be related the central tenant of modern real business cycle theory. Subsequently, his Business Cycle Theory and his introductory text Principles of Economicswith Frederic Garver brought him to the attention of the wider economics profession. Having become uncompetitive, the world looked to others, increasingly China, as a source of investment and cheap goods.

And of course Keynes never used the word technological in the Akvin and as you say he was pretty much only interested in finding a way out of the abyss the world economy had fallen into. Prof J March 8, at 4: In retrospect, the notion that technological innovation stopped in the s seems clearly incorrect.

Alvin Hansen – Wikipedia

I think I can understand why you cannot agree with paragraph 4 I think – it’s pretty much the policy advocated by MMT, which I have found much to agree with, where the buffer stock represented by NAIRU presently is replaced with a buffer stock represented by a Job Guarantee, and requires subscription to the concept that the state, as the monopoly issuer of currency, can afford to pay for any goods, services and resources denominated in their issued currency, mindful only of inflationary risks as Full Employment is reached.

Farnam Frank A. I’m unashamedly socialist not in the Russia or North Korea sense, they stagmation not examples of socialist economies, and only lazy capitalists evoke that argument in my opinionso my beliefs and aspirations naturally lean towards more equitable distributions, rather than more efficient which is typically less equitable.

Hansen was not without his critics, however; journalist John Seculad.

Alvin Hansen

Plehn Wesley C. In the s, Stagnationn was top of the economic heap. Williams Harold A. Hansen, in his review hansdn The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Moneywas skeptical of John Maynard Keynes ‘s propositions, but by Decemberin his presidential address to the American Economic Associationhe embraced Keynesian theories of the need for government intervention in periods of economic recession.

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He received in Ph. It’s an economy where we would think seriously about finding ways to ease the tax and regulatory burdens on investment. Paul Samuelson was Hansen’s most famous student.

Except that it seems that we are: Henry, I have no idea what accounts for his apparent ambivalence toward Keynes. Clark Henry C. But the story above is incomplete. Hansen’s secular stagnation hypothesis was largely forgotten over time. But more recently, Hansen writes, “the role of economic progress in the maintenance of full employment of the productive resources has come under consideration.

Hollander Henry R. Kindleberger Alice M. Ergoa higher rate of growth over long periods of time begets a higher rate of resource utilization nansen the same period of time secularr average employment rate, lower average unemployment rate. He advocated instead that inflation could be controlled by changes in interest- and tax-rates as well as controls on prices and wages.

Solow Moses Hanseb William J. James Henry W. Innis Calvin B. Mills Sumner Slichter Edwin G. Believe those who are seeking the truth. Hadley Richard T. Hansen notes that earlier economists were focused mainly on how economic growth driven by technological change, population growth, etc.

CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Secular Stagnation: Back to Alvin Hansen

Hansen’s spirit would surely point out that a surge of population growth or an expansion of territory are unlikely. Moreover, the investment surge of the mids was largely in residential real estate, and whatever sechlar other virtues of such investments, additional houses don’t do much to raise future rates of productivity growth. Taylor Edwin F.